The conjunction fallacy and interference effects
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
The conjunction fallacy and interference effects
In the present article we consider the conjunction fallacy, a well known cognitive heuristic experimentally tested in cognitive science, which occurs for intuitive judgments in situations of bounded rationality. We show that the quantum formalism can be used to describe in a very simple way this fallacy in terms of interference effect. We evidence that the quantum formalism leads quite naturall...
متن کاملThe conjunction fallacy: a misunderstanding about conjunction?
It is easy to construct pairs of sentences X, Y that lead many people to ascribe higher probability to the conjunction X-and-Y than to the conjuncts X, Y. Whether an error is thereby committed depends on reasoners’ interpretation of the expressions “probability” and “and.” We report two experiments designed to clarify the normative status of typical responses to conjunction problems. © 2004 Cog...
متن کاملProbability, Confirmation, and the Conjunction Fallacy
The conjunction fallacy has been a key topic in debates on the rationality of human reasoning and its limitations. Despite extensive inquiry, however, the attempt of providing a satisfactory account of the phenomenon has proven challenging. Here, we elaborate the suggestion (first discussed by Sides et al., 2001) that in standard conjunction problems the fallacious probability judgments experim...
متن کاملSource Reliability and the Conjunction Fallacy
Information generally comes from less than fully reliable sources. Rationality, it seems, requires that one take source reliability into account when reasoning on the basis of such information. Recently, Bovens and Hartmann (2003) proposed an account of the conjunction fallacy based on this idea. They show that, when statements in conjunction fallacy scenarios are perceived as coming from such ...
متن کاملOn the nature of the conjunction fallacy
In a seminal work, Tversky and Kahneman showed that in some contexts people tend to believe that a conjunction of events (e.g., Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement) is more likely to occur than one of the conjuncts (e.g., Linda is a bank teller). This belief violates the conjunction rule in probability theory. Tversky and Kahneman called this phenomenon the "conjunctio...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Mathematical Psychology
سال: 2009
ISSN: 0022-2496
DOI: 10.1016/j.jmp.2009.02.002